- There was a nasty decline in Crude Oil Price, as it moved below $44 against the US Dollar.
- Later, the price started recovering, and currently facing a major resistance near $46.50-46.80 on the hourly chart.
- The US Import Price Index for April 2017 (MoM) released by the US Department of Labor posted a rise of 0.5%, more than the forecast of +0.2%.
Oil Price Technical Analysis
In the last analysis, I mentioned that if Oil price has to gain, it has to break a major trend line resistance near $49. If it fails, there is a chance of a downside move towards $48.50.
The price failed to break $49, and moved down towards $48.50. The downside move was such that the price even broke the $46.00 support to trade towards $44.00.
A new low was formed near $43.54, and later it started a recovery with a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $49.02 low to $43.54 low.
Oil Price Hourly Chart
It recently also cleared a couple of bearish trend lines at $46.20 on the hourly chart.
However, the price is currently just below a major resistance near $46.50-46.80. It is also just below the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $49.02 low to $43.54 low.
So, the price may struggle to close above $46.80 or $47.00. If it succeeds, there can be a move towards $47.80.
US Import and Export Price Index
Today in the US, the Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2017 were released by the US Department of Labor. The market was expecting the import price index to increase by 0.2% in April 2017, compared with the previous month.
The actual result was below the forecast, as the import price index increased 0.5%. Similarly, the market was expecting the export price index to increase by 0.1% in April 2017, but it came in at 0.2%.
The report stated that:
Fuel Imports: Fuel prices rose 1.6 percent in April following a 0.9-percent decline the previous month. A 1.6-percent advance in petroleum prices and a 4.0-percent rise in natural gas prices each contributed to the April increase in overall fuel prices.
In short, the market sentiment may improve for Oil prices, but it won’t be easy for buyers to break $46.80.