- There were continuous declines in Crude Oil Price this past week until it found support at $48.00 against the US Dollar.
- The price is currently recovering, but facing a major resistance near $49.00-49.05 and a bearish trend line on the hourly chart.
- The market sentiment is a bit negative, considering the Euro Zone unemployment rate released today posted no decline from 9.5% in March 2017.
Oil Price Technical Analysis
This past week, we saw declines in Crude Oil price from the $50 high against the US Dollar. The downside move was such that the price broke the $49.00 support.
The price accelerated the decline, and recently traded as low as $47.88 where it found support. A recovery was initiated, but a bearish trend line on the hourly chart at $49.40 protected the upside move.
A new downside wave was initiated with low at $48.29, and now the price is recovering once again. It has moved above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $49.43 high to $48.29 low.
Oil Price Hourly Chart
However, the same trend line at $49.00-49.05 is currently acting as a hurdle and preventing gains.
Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $49.43 high to $48.29 low is also acting as a barrier for buyers.
So, if the price has to move further higher, it has to break the trend line resistance at $49.05. Otherwise, it might move down once again towards $48.50.
Euro Zone Unemployment Rate
Today in the Euro Zone, the Unemployment Rate for March 2017 was released by the Eurostat. The market was expecting a decline in the rate from 9.5% to 9.4% in March 2017.
The actual result was below the forecast, as there was no change in the Euro Zone Unemployment Rate from 9.5%.
On the other hand, the report stated that:
The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 9.5% in March 2017, stable compared to February 2017 and down from 10.2% in March 2016. This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since April 2009.
So, the overall result was negative, which kind of helped oil price in recovery above $48.50, but it has to clear $49.05 for further gains in the near term.