Crude Oil

Can Oil Price Break Past $49.00-49.05 For Further Gains?

  • There were continuous declines in Crude Oil Price this past week until it found support at $48.00 against the US Dollar.
  • The price is currently recovering, but facing a major resistance near $49.00-49.05 and a bearish trend line on the hourly chart.
  • The market sentiment is a bit negative, considering the Euro Zone unemployment rate released today posted no decline from 9.5% in March 2017.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

This past week, we saw declines in Crude Oil price from the $50 high against the US Dollar. The downside move was such that the price broke the $49.00 support.

The price accelerated the decline, and recently traded as low as $47.88 where it found support. A recovery was initiated, but a bearish trend line on the hourly chart at $49.40 protected the upside move.

A new downside wave was initiated with low at $48.29, and now the price is recovering once again. It has moved above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $49.43 high to $48.29 low.

Oil Price Hourly Chart

Crude Oil Price Chart US Dollar

However, the same trend line at $49.00-49.05 is currently acting as a hurdle and preventing gains.

Moreover, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $49.43 high to $48.29 low is also acting as a barrier for buyers.

So, if the price has to move further higher, it has to break the trend line resistance at $49.05. Otherwise, it might move down once again towards $48.50.

Euro Zone Unemployment Rate

Today in the Euro Zone, the Unemployment Rate for March 2017 was released by the Eurostat. The market was expecting a decline in the rate from 9.5% to 9.4% in March 2017.

The actual result was below the forecast, as there was no change in the Euro Zone Unemployment Rate from 9.5%.

On the other hand, the report stated that:

The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 9.5% in March 2017, stable compared to February 2017 and down from 10.2% in March 2016. This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since April 2009.

So, the overall result was negative, which kind of helped oil price in recovery above $48.50, but it has to clear $49.05 for further gains in the near term.

About Aayush Jindal 109 Articles
With over 10 years of experience and still counting, Aayush posses great technical and fundamental analysis skills in the Forex, Cryptocurrency and Financial Markets. His Analysis are well-know and famous for engaging with viewers easily. He is from IT background with a lot of passion in the Forex and Cryptocurrency Arena.

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